Investigative Case 9: Pandemic Flu Open Ended Investigation

Use the following link to download the Excel-based SIR model used in Investigation V:


Develop a scenario of your own (more virulent flu, different mitigation efforts, targeting certain population segments, etc.) and see how the spread of disease is changed.

Other links of use for projects:

Noymer, A. Raw data set: Age-specific death rates (per 100,000). Influenza and Pneumonia, USA.

Life expectancy in the USA, 1900–98.

Taubenberger, J. K., and D. M. Morens. 1918 influenza: The mother of all pandemics.
Emerging Infectious Diseases, on return 12(1), January 2006. Online at

Weisstein, A. E. SIR Modeling. In Biological ESTEEM: Excel Simulations and Tools for Exploratory, Experiential Mathematics. 2007

World Health Organization. Antigenic and genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses and candidate H5N1 vaccine viruses developed for potential use as pre-pandemic vaccines.

Map Links:

Figure 9.2a

Figure 9.2b

Figure 9.2c

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