Investigative Case 9: Pandemic Flu Open Ended Investigation

Use the following link to download the Excel-based SIR model used in Investigation V:

FluSIRModel

Develop a scenario of your own (more virulent flu, different mitigation efforts, targeting certain population segments, etc.) and see how the spread of disease is changed.

Other links of use for projects:

Noymer, A. Raw data set: Age-specific death rates (per 100,000). Influenza and Pneumonia, USA.
http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure1.html

Life expectancy in the USA, 1900–98. http://www.demog.berkeley.edu/~andrew/1918/figure2.html

Taubenberger, J. K., and D. M. Morens. 1918 influenza: The mother of all pandemics.
Emerging Infectious Diseases, on return 12(1), January 2006. Online at http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0979.htm

Weisstein, A. E. SIR Modeling. In Biological ESTEEM: Excel Simulations and Tools for Exploratory, Experiential Mathematics. 2007 http://bioquest.org/esteem/esteem_result.php

World Health Organization. Antigenic and genetic characteristics of H5N1 viruses and candidate H5N1 vaccine viruses developed for potential use as pre-pandemic vaccines.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/guidelines/h5n1virus/en/index.html

Map Links:

Figure 9.2a
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_SubNat_H5N1inAnimalConfirmedCUMULATIVE_20070329.png

Figure 9.2b
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_H5N1inHumanCUMULATIVE_FIMS_20070329.png

Figure 9.2c
http://calag.ucop.edu/0603JAS/images/avianMap.jpg

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